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PUBLICATION

This publication presents monthly information on sales of new motor vehicles in each state/territory in original, seasonally adjusted and trend estimated terms. The original data are sourced from the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries. Sales data are available for passenger vehicles, sports utility vehicles (SUVs), other vehicles and total vehicles at the state/territory and national levels.

Data for sales of new motor vehicles in Tasmania have experienced larger than usual fluctuations in recent months. As such, the seasonally adjusted series for the number of new motor vehicle sales in Tasmania is not considered sufficiently reliable for general use and reporting at this time. For further information, see paragraphs 6 to 8 of the Explanatory Notes.


OCTOBER 2004 KEY POINTS

Trend

The trend estimate for sales of new motor vehicles increased 1.2% to 82,234 in October 2004. When compared with October 2003 (77,967) the trend estimate has shown an increase of 5.5%.

Sales of passenger vehicles and sports utility vehicles also recorded increases of 1.2% over the last month. The trend estimate for sales of sports utility vehicles has been increasing continually since September 2003, recording a total increase of 21.4% since this time.

All states and territories recorded increases in the trend estimate for sales of new motor vehicles in October 2004.

Seasonally adjusted

The seasonally adjusted estimate for sales of new motor vehicles rose 3.0% to 84,177 in October 2004. Passenger vehicle sales increased 3.7% to 51,978 and sales of sports utility vehicles increased 1.3% to 15,499. Sales of other new vehicles increased 2.5% to 16,700 in October 2004.

NOTES


TREND REVISIONS

Trend estimates are likely to be revised when new seasonally adjusted estimates become available. For further information, see Explanatory Notes 9 and 10.

The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimates.

		Passenger vehicles (No.)	Sports utility vehicles (No.)	Other vehicles (No.)	Total vehicles (No.)	Change passenger vehicles (%)	Change sports utility vehicles (%)	Change other vehicles (%)	Change total vehicles (%)
Original
2003	August	49,869	12,181	14,123	76,173	-3.1	-7.0	-5.7	-4.2
	September	51,749	11,590	14,452	77,791	3.8	-4.9	2.3	2.1
	October	52,180	12,318	14,727	79,225	0.8	6.3	1.9	1.8
	November	48,482	12,892	14,738	76,112	-7.1	4.7	0.1	-3.9
	December	49,834	13,296	14,656	77,786	2.8	3.1	-0.6	2.2
2004	January	40,715	12,291	11,791	64,797	-18.3	-7.6	-19.5	-16.7
	February	47,876	12,865	15,136	75,877	17.6	4.7	28.4	17.1
	March	53,728	15,005	17,313	86,046	12.2	16.6	14.4	13.4
	April	44,079	12,351	14,875	71,305	-18.0	-17.7	-14.1	-17.1
	May	46,168	15,052	17,059	78,279	4.7	21.9	14.7	9.8
	June	58,284	17,981	20,947	97,212	26.2	19.5	22.8	24.2
	July	46,724	14,442	15,869	77,035	-19.8	-19.7	-24.2	-20.8
	August	48,649	14,910	15,685	79,244	4.1	3.2	-1.2	2.9
	September	49,911	14,715	15,826	80,452	2.6	-1.3	0.9	1.5
	October	52,290	13,907	15,470	81,667	4.8	-5.5	-2.2	1.5
Seasonally Adjusted
2003	August	51,326	12,748	14,634	78,708	2.2	1.3	-2.1	1.2
	September	52,342	12,604	14,921	79,867	2.0	-1.1	2.0	1.5
	October	49,012	12,636	15,045	76,693	-6.4	0.3	0.8	-4.0
	November	48,456	13,110	14,918	76,484	-1.1	3.8	-0.8	-0.3
	December	46,105	13,096	14,907	74,108	-4.9	-0.1	-0.1	-3.1
2004	January	49,599	13,944	15,654	79,197	7.6	6.5	5.0	6.9
	February	50,391	13,337	16,011	79,739	1.6	-4.4	2.3	0.7
	March	49,119	13,504	16,355	78,978	-2.5	1.3	2.1	-1.0
	April	48,275	13,295	15,906	77,476	-1.7	-1.5	-2.7	-1.9
	May	48,116	14,596	16,201	78,913	-0.3	9.8	1.9	1.9
	June	49,903	14,593	15,411	79,907	3.7	0.0	-4.9	1.3
	July	47,395	14,697	15,995	78,087	-5.0	0.7	3.8	-2.3
	August	48,361	15,024	15,781	79,166	2.0	2.2	-1.3	1.4
	September	50,142	15,295	16,300	81,737	3.7	1.8	3.3	3.2
	October	51,978	15,499	16,700	84,177	3.7	1.3	2.5	3.0
Trend
2003	August	51,138	12,737	14,726	78,601	0.2	-0.3	1.3	0.3
	September	50,781	12,734	14,841	78,356	-0.7	0.0	0.8	-0.3
	October	50,187	12,830	14,950	77,967	-1.2	0.8	0.7	-0.5
	November	49,563	12,991	15,096	77,650	-1.2	1.3	1.0	-0.4
	December	49,047	13,167	15,316	77,530	-1.0	1.4	1.5	-0.2
2004	January	48,785	13,336	15,584	77,705	-0.5	1.3	1.7	0.2
	February	48,779	13,490	15,832	78,101	0.0	1.2	1.6	0.5
	March	48,863	13,661	15,984	78,508	0.2	1.3	1.0	0.5
	April	48,813	13,873	16,016	78,702	-0.1	1.6	0.2	0.2
	May	48,643	14,142	15,961	78,746	-0.3	1.9	-0.3	0.1
	June	48,542	14,459	15,908	78,909	-0.2	2.2	-0.3	0.2
	July	48,763	14,776	15,929	79,468	0.5	2.2	0.1	0.7
	August	49,234	15,049	16,029	80,312	1.0	1.8	0.6	1.1
	September	49,817	15,275	16,166	81,258	1.2	1.5	0.9	1.2
	October	50,437	15,461	16,336	82,234	1.2	1.2	1.1	1.2

		NSW	Vic.	Qld	SA	WA	TAS.(a)	NT	ACT	Aust.
		(No.)	(No.)	(No.)	(No.)	(No.)	(No.)	(No.)	(No.)	(No.)
Original
2003	August	25,391	19,799	15,248	5,263	7,048	1,589	555	1,280	76,173
	September	25,738	21,200	15,293	5,222	6,894	1,639	593	1,212	77,791
	October	25,533	21,337	15,521	5,430	7,487	2,008	607	1,302	79,225
	November	25,099	20,254	15,058	5,214	6,925	1,717	630	1,215	76,112
	December	25,113	21,071	15,265	5,404	7,161	1,860	593	1,319	77,786
2004	January	21,216	16,857	13,403	4,334	6,249	1,193	498	1,047	64,797
	February	24,955	19,727	15,901	5,059	7,113	1,297	686	1,139	75,877
	March	28,118	22,137	18,611	5,561	8,086	1,343	912	1,278	86,046
	April	23,033	19,083	14,831	4,670	6,529	1,229	812	1,118	71,305
	May	25,649	20,106	16,373	5,215	7,296	1,513	918	1,209	78,279
	June	31,438	23,929	22,026	6,436	8,969	1,982	958	1,474	97,212
	July	25,031	19,410	17,141	4,949	7,228	1,449	646	1,181	77,035
	August	24,795	20,850	17,269	5,414	7,513	1,585	677	1,141	79,244
	September	25,241	20,821	17,188	5,289	8,177	1,855	739	1,142	80,452
	October	25,621	22,747	16,079	5,413	7,875	1,981	709	1,242	81,667
Seasonally Adjusted
2003	August	26,457	20,527	15,679	5,316	7,244	1,561	608	1,316	78,708
	September	26,761	21,251	15,644	5,399	7,259	1,595	680	1,278	79,867
	October	24,639	20,126	15,674	5,288	7,165	1,936	628	1,237	76,693
	November	24,672	20,378	15,573	5,269	7,096	1,622	650	1,224	76,484
	December	24,333	19,994	14,601	5,113	6,939	1,252	629	1,247	74,108
2004	January	26,073	20,850	16,243	5,380	7,243	1,532	650	1,226	79,197
	February	26,584	20,740	16,487	5,212	7,206	1,541	759	1,210	79,739
	March	25,766	20,502	16,753	5,168	7,387	1,418	783	1,201	78,978
	April	25,225	20,418	16,196	5,126	7,063	1,482	763	1,203	77,476
	May	25,372	20,411	16,775	5,229	7,587	1,554	776	1,209	78,913
	June	25,566	20,377	17,647	5,288	7,218	1,862	733	1,216	79,907
	July	25,227	19,625	17,171	5,033	7,601	1,552	670	1,208	78,087
	August	24,998	20,643	17,118	5,339	7,644	1,549	735	1,140	79,166
	September	25,678	20,854	17,479	5,400	8,421	1,881	821	1,203	81,737
	October	26,154	23,011	17,430	5,613	7,963	1,987	771	1,248	84,177
Trend
2003	August	26,264	20,858	15,456	5,283	7,223	1,591	641	1,285	78,601
	September	26,051	20,788	15,483	5,306	7,205	1,612	634	1,277	78,356
	October	25,798	20,691	15,500	5,306	7,166	1,605	634	1,267	77,967
	November	25,607	20,605	15,552	5,287	7,131	1,572	643	1,253	77,650
	December	25,515	20,551	15,663	5,256	7,125	1,520	662	1,238	77,530
2004	January	25,538	20,539	15,857	5,231	7,148	1,476	693	1,223	77,705
	February	25,629	20,532	16,137	5,211	7,188	1,465	725	1,214	78,101
	March	25,697	20,496	16,450	5,196	7,227	1,486	746	1,210	78,508
	April	25,644	20,382	16,731	5,181	7,277	1,525	756	1,206	78,702
	May	25,487	20,262	16,940	5,176	7,355	1,573	752	1,201	78,746
	June	25,344	20,255	17,080	5,198	7,472	1,618	745	1,197	78,909
	July	25,340	20,434	17,208	5,250	7,626	1,673	740	1,197	79,468
	August	25,431	20,766	17,326	5,317	7,793	1,736	746	1,197	80,312
	September	25,563	21,181	17,413	5,391	7,952	1,801	756	1,201	81,258
	October	25,716	21,624	17,494	5,465	8,099	1,861	768	1,207	82,234
(a) The ABS advises the seasonally adjusted number of new motor vehicle sales in Tasmania should not be used in reporting. The small numbers and volatile nature of these data in recent months make reliable estimation of the seasonal pattern very difficult. The seasonally adjusted figures for Australia and other states/territories remain unaffected.